World trade leaders
The world trade is currently undergoing a transformation: Russia, China, Turkey start to work out the plans to abandon the dollar in calculations among themselves; the U.S. trade sanctions are applied not only to Russia and a number of "unfriendly" states, but also to the closest allies; the duties war between USA and China risks to undermine the impressive dynamics of global cooperation.
China, USA and Germany are leaders by foreign trade turnover, controlling almost 30% of world trade. Meanwhile USA has the world's largest negative balance of trade (excess of imports over exports) – minus USD 862 bln (see Table 1). In this case, it becomes clear the U.S. attempts to correct the current disadvantaged position of the country. In this regard, the following point is remarkable: although Russia significantly lags behind the top three countries in terms of foreign trade turnover, it has the world's third-largest positive balance of trade: USD 116 bln, second only to China with USD 421 bln and Germany with USD 281 bln.
|№||Country||Foreign trade turnover, bln USD||Share in global trade,%||Export, bln USD||Share in world export, %||Import, bln USD||Share in world import, %||Balance of trade, bln USD|
|9||Republic of Korea||1052||2,9||574||3,2||478||2,7||96|
In 2017 the Russian foreign trade volume amounted to USD 592 bln or 1,7% of the global turnover. Thus, Russia takes the 18th place. USD 354 bln of the amount (2% of world export) were exported, USD 238 bln (1,3% of world import) were imported.
According to the latest data published by the Federal Customs Service, the positive growth dynamics of export and import is observed in January-July 2018 compared with the same period in 2017. In relative terms, this is 28.5% and 11%, respectively. By the end of 2018, upon the maintaining of momentum in the second half of the year (taking into account the devaluation of ruble, the dynamics may be slightly lower), the volume of foreign trade turnover will increase to USD 719 bln, including export – 454 bln, import – 264 bln, positive balance of trade - USD 190 bln (Picture 1).
According to the data collected by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the top value of the Russian foreign trade was recorded in 2012 and 2013 – USD 863 bln. In contemporary landscape, this would put our country in the 11th place in the world. Under otherwise equal conditions, in case we extrapolate the current rate of trade development to 2019, we can expect USD 877 bln in the next year. This will exceed the previous historical record and bring Russia closer to the Top-10 leaders. In that way, the previously lost positions will be fully restored.