Russia changes trade partners and diversifies export

newsletter 05/11/2015

Devaluation of the ruble, sanctions, poor conditions in the commodity markets and the general deterioration of the macroeconomic situation led to a significant reduction in the volume of foreign trade turnover: for January-August 2015 the import of goods and services to Russia in monetary terms fell by 38,9% (from 193,3 bln USD to 118,1 bln USD) in accordance with the correspondence period of 2014; the export reduced by 31,6% (from 343,1 bln USD to 234,5 bln USD). The positive trade surplus amounted to 116,4 bln USD, that indicates the stable demand on the Russian exported goods in the foreign market.

Speaking about Russia’s foreign partners, the attention to the countries of the Eurasian economic union and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) should to be paid. The share of these countries in the total export/import volume is increasing and EU countries’ share is reducing.

Kazakhstan can be mentioned an example, appeared for the first time in the Top-10 of countries leading in export of Russian goods and rose by 3 positions at once. Ukraine, formerly included in the Top-10, fell by 6 positions during the period under review, and quit the list of the Russia’s main trade partners. Today the Ukraine’s share in the Russian export is 2,5% or 6 bln USD (12th position).

Table 1. Top-10 of countries as a foreign trade export partners of Russia, January-August 2015
PositionCountryExport volume, USDShare in the total export, %
1

The Netherlands

28 828 554 354 12,29
2

China

19 063 235 628 8,13
3

Germany

17 554 315 893 7,48
4

Italy

16 801 974 351 7,16
5

Turkey

13 697 707 426 5,84
6

Belarus

10 192 098 195 4,35
7

Japan

9 834 184 809 4,19
8

The Republic of Korea

8 934 083 100 3,81
9

Kazakhstan

7 184 834 689 3,06
10

Poland

6 718 996 534 2,86
11

The United States

6 607 395 310 2,82
12

Ukraine

5 974 043 272 2,55
13

Latvia

5 410 686 277 2,31
14

The United Kingdom

5 375 219 595 2,29
15

Finland

4 756 204 352 2,03
16

Belgium

4 371 318 534 1,86
17

France

3 822 478 733 1,63
18

India

3 637 097 581 1,55
19

Slovakia

2 566 763 544 1,09
20

The Czech Republic

2 264 094 344 0,97
21

Egypt

2 029 321 083 0,87
22

Hungary

2 004 747 554 0,85
23

Сингапур

1 933 057 902 0,82
24

Lithuania

1 925 557 069 0,82
25

Taiwan (China)

1 820 667 143 0,78
26

Swiss

1 737 626 680 0,74
27

Malta

1 728 424 935 0,74
28

Spain

1 715 810 897 0,73
29

Greece

1 700 641 604 0,73
30

Switzerland

1 658 223 490 0,71
31

Azerbaijan

1 567 546 955 0,67
32

Estonia

1 565 278 832 0,67
33

Uzbekistan

1 507 050 201 0,64
34

Denmark

1 424 293 532 0,61
35

Brazil

1 376 513 561 0,59
36

Iraq

1 371 154 186 0,58
37

Romania

1 085 771 371 0,46
38

Bulgaria

1 076 758 342 0,46
39

Israel

1 071 669 970 0,46
40

Vietnam

936 659 751 0,40
41

Kirgizia

883 439 375 0,38
42

Algeria

732 637 799 0,31
43

Croatia

728 038 805 0,31
44

Austria

719 950 042 0,31
45

The Republic of Moldova

716 201 059 0,31
46

Mongolia

713 131 122 0,30
47

Mexico

689 649 481 0,29
48

The United Arabian Emirates

651 360 326 0,28
49

Iran, the Islamic Republic

627 411 090 0,27
50

Armenia

622 185 175 0,27
51

Hong Kong

601 967 964 0,26
52

Turkmenistan

543 338 241 0,23
53

Serbia

518 826 503 0,22
54

Saudi Arabia

518 664 998 0,22
55

Gibraltar

502 768 828 0,21
56

Malaysia

493 505 148 0,21
57

Tajikistan

490 925 011 0,21
58

Norway

472 186 025 0,20
59

Lebanon

422 649 238 0,18
60

Thailand

407 883 726 0,17
61

Канада

357 416 201 0,15
62

Venezuela

324 513 943 0,14
63

New Zeeland

319 266 290 0,14
64

Morocco

318 460 712 0,14
65

Georgia

308 530 442 0,13
66

Peru

288 673 547 0,12
67

Indonesia

284 636 570 0,12
68

Philippines

259 425 932 0,11
69

The Syrian Arab Republic

224 372 423 0,10
70

Bangladesh

222 073 908 0,09
71

Bosnia and Herzegovina

205 265 318 0,09
72

Tunisia

182 138 957 0,08
73

Cyprus

164 939 761 0,07
74

Nigeria

163 587 734 0,07
75

South Africa

162 656 848 0,07
76

Portugal

162 338 956 0,07
77

Kuwait

156 640 350 0,07
78

Ireland

150 874 945 0,06
79

Angola

142 990 688 0,06
80

Columbia

142 272 608 0,06
81

Ecuador

135 815 211 0,06
82

Yemen

133 549 671 0,06
83

Trinidad and Tobago

125 579 483 0,05
84

Abkhazia

125 334 908 0,05
85

Afghanistan

116 499 259 0,05
86

Jordan

116 472 393 0,05
87

Kenia

111 430 439 0,05
88

Jersey

101 851 698 0,04
89

Toho

92 622 610 0,04
90

Libya

87 084 824 0,04
91

Ruanda

85 878 517 0,04
92

Sudan

85 721 235 0,04
93

Sri-Lanka

84 470 272 0,04
94

Myanmar

82 517 350 0,04
95

Slovenia

77 759 622 0,03
96

Hana

77 565 834 0,03
97

Bahamas

72 681 866 0,03
98

The Dominican Republic

71 973 528 0,03
99

Australia

69 077 714 0,03
100

Argentina

67 795 958 0,03
101

Pakistan

64 683 771 0,03
102

Cuba

60 266 933 0,03
103

The United Republic of Tanzania

56 964 654 0,02
104

The British Virgin islands

55 825 993 0,02
105

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea

53 850 109 0,02
106

Oman

51 984 731 0,02
107

French Guiana

49 625 025 0,02
108

Chile

45 995 680 0,02
109

The Republic of Macedonia

44 175 741 0,02
110

Panama

38 789 873 0,02
111

Albania

38 494 998 0,02
112

Senegal

37 076 030 0,02
113

Luxemburg

33 955 042 0,01
114

Guatemala

33 188 024 0,01
115

Nepal

32 734 608 0,01
116

Mozambique

31 939 687 0,01
117

South Ossetia

29 382 536 0,01
118

Puerto Rico

26 671 219 0,01
119

Montenegro

25 232 011 0,01
120

Côte d'Ivoire

24 608 229 0,01
121

The Democratic Republic of the Congo

22 406 679 0,01
122

Honduras

19 737 192 0,01
123

Belize

18 549 753 0,01
124

Botswana

18 228 572 0,01
125

Nicaragua

17 985 267 0,01
126

Costa-Rica

17 734 061 0,01
127

Uruguay

15 966 600 0,01
128

Djibouti

14 779 461 0,01
129

Mauritania

12 804 205 0,01
130

Paraguay

11 287 177 0,00
131

Uganda

11 157 233 0,00
132

El-Salvador

10 683 187 0,00
133

Malawi

10 250 545 0,00
134

Qatar

9 860 479 0,00
135

The Federated States of Micronesia

9 797 499 0,00
136

Laos

8 625 693 0,00
137

Ethiopia

8 446 157 0,00
138

Iceland

8 006 919 0,00
139

Congo

7 985 955 0,00
140

Guinea

7 308 176 0,00
141

Kameron

5 899 009 0,00
142

Falkland Islands (Malvinas)

5 093 448 0,00
143

Faeroes

4 920 066 0,00
144

Haiti

4 790 515 0,00
145

Zambia

4 502 623 0,00
146

Mali

3 908 591 0,00
147

Bahrein

3 421 953 0,00
148

Namibia

3 246 971 0,00
149

Nauru

3 046 997 0,00
150

Liberia

2 733 558 0,00
151

Papua-New Guinea

2 565 857 0,00
152

Bolivia

2 540 065 0,00
153

Gambia

2 211 691 0,00
154

Zimbabwe

2 099 672 0,00
155

Andorra

1 852 000 0,00
156

Seychelles

1 706 570 0,00
157

Sierra-Leone

1 604 732 0,00
158

Palestinian territories

1 531 840 0,00
159

Cambodia

1 339 100 0,00
160

Sent-Kits and Nevis

1 267 235 0,00
161

New Caledonia

1 254 265 0,00
162

EU countries

1 239 137 0,00
163

Equatorial Guinea

1 202 046 0,00
164

Burkina-Faso

1 075 784 0,00
165

Macao

1 016 434 0,00
166

Somali

1 014 703 0,00
167

Mauritius

1 012 548 0,00
168

Chad

915 569 0,00
169

Curacao

840 313 0,00
170

Burundi

769 191 0,00
171

South Sudan

745 287 0,00
172

Norfolk island

742 000 0,00
173

Niger

567 051 0,00
174

Sao Tome and Principe

543 343 0,00
175

Cayman islands

494 488 0,00
176

Monaco

439 448 0,00
177

Gabon

405 102 0,00
178

Benin

331 518 0,00
179

Jamaica

299 259 0,00
180

Brunei Darussalam

236 524 0,00
181

Isle of Man

157 674 0,00
182

Madagascar

146 257 0,00
183

Bhutan

124 600 0,00
184

Guyana

123 782 0,00
185

Surinam

118 303 0,00
186

Lichtenstein

84 596 0,00
187

Reunion

68 960 0,00
188

Cabo-Verde

46 698 0,00
189

Palau

44 281 0,00
190

French Polynesia

27 056 0,00
191

Fiji

24 800 0,00
192

Svalbard and Jan Mayen

22 750 0,00
193

Mayotte

20 498 0,00
194

Martinique

20 000 0,00
195

Guadalupe

14 024 0,00
196

San-Marino

8 367 0,00
197

Sent-Vincent and Grenadines

6 514 0,00
198

Maldives

4 365 0,00
199

Dominica

400 0,00
200

Guernsey

20 0,00

For the period of January-August 2015, China has increased the share in the total import by 1,7%. Belarus and Kazakhstan also increased their shares. Ukraine reduced the supplies share by 1% and today 3,2% of imported goods and services on the total amount of 3,7 bln USD fell to this country.

Table 2. Top-10 of countries as a foreign trade import partners of Russia, January-August 2015
PositionCountryExport volume, USDShare in the total export, %
1 China 22 355 681 693 18,93
2 Germany 13 018 351 631 11,02
3 The United States 7 871 293 870 6,66
4 Belarus 5 710 633 458 4,83
5 Italy 5 147 815 780 4,36
6 Japan 4 431 028 551 3,75
7 Ukraine 3 726 346 930 3,15
8 France 3 675 254 356 3,11
9 Kazakhstan 3 571 023 684 3,02
10 The Republic of Korea 3 007 452 638 2,55
11 Turkey 2 733 783 502 2,31
12 Poland 2 637 116 569 2,23
13 The United Kingdom 2 490 771 438 2,11
14 Brazil 1 880 149 491 1,59
15 The Netherlands 1 849 082 881 1,57
16 Czech Republic 1 835 038 651 1,55
17 Finland 1 740 484 952 1,47
18 Spain 1 720 455 952 1,46
19 India 1 493 368 984 1,26
20 Belgium 1 364 254 074 1,16
21 Austria 1 273 643 843 1,08
22 Vietnam 1 266 823 155 1,07
23 Swiss 1 256 574 596 1,06
24 Slovakia 1 135 549 954 0,96
25 Switzerland 1 119 124 960 0,95
26 Hungary 1 106 309 169 0,94
27 Indonesia 990 838 875 0,84
28 Thailand 930 916 013 0,79
29 Romania 873 889 723 0,74
30 Taiwan (China) 798 137 270 0,68
31 Ecuador 760 333 492 0,64
32 Malaysia 758 436 143 0,64
33 Israel 592 988 832 0,50
34 Paraguay 588 340 124 0,50
35 Denmark 580 114 988 0,49
36 Argentina 563 776 827 0,48
37 Slovenia 551 911 321 0,47
38 Ireland 509 758 340 0,43
39 Serbia 491 128 295 0,42
40 Canada 457 338 150 0,39
41 Chile 440 954 378 0,37
42 Mexico 416 769 474 0,35
43 Bangladesh 412 150 643 0,35
44 South Africa 405 241 788 0,34
45 Australia 396 785 349 0,34
46 Uzbekistan 392 906 344 0,33
47 Egypt 361 281 361 0,31
48 Estonia 358 539 208 0,30
49 Singapore 345 454 956 0,29
50 Norway 343 820 038 0,29
51 Azerbaijan 316 507 718 0,27
52 Lithuania 293 389 699 0,25
53 Bulgaria 293 337 169 0,25
54 Morocco 278 450 944 0,24
55 Latvia 270 080 291 0,23
56 Portugal 257 546 782 0,22
57 Pakistan 240 831 075 0,20
58 Sri-Lanka 202 223 846 0,17
59 Iran, the Islamic Republic 175 993 489 0,15
60 Faeroes 148 107 938 0,13
61 Greece 142 330 036 0,12
62 Hong Kong 140 427 911 0,12
63 Philippines 139 778 040 0,12
64 Croatia 131 316 453 0,11
65 The Republic of Moldova 119 042 786 0,10
66 United Arabian Emirates 116 357 917 0,10
67 Kenya 114 195 159 0,10
68 Iceland 99 404 011 0,08
69 Saudi Arabia 97 778 933 0,08
70 Armenia 96 658 105 0,08
71 Georgia 93 104 314 0,08
72 Côte d'Ivoire 92 055 418 0,08
73 Puerto-Rico 83 911 978 0,07
74 Jamaica 78 634 244 0,07
75 Columbia 78 012 330 0,07
76 Luxemburg 73 107 071 0,06
77 Uruguay 71 078 191 0,06
78 Cambodia 70 083 240 0,06
79 New Zeeland 68 095 458 0,06
80 Tunisia 66 814 347 0,06
81 The Republic of Macedonia 56 977 414 0,05
82 Peru 55 256 334 0,05
83 Costa-Rica 51 708 859 0,04
84 Turkmenistan 47 381 052 0,04
85 Kirgizia 46 652 129 0,04
86 Ghana 43 985 945 0,04
87 Cuba 41 324 584 0,03
88 Tajikistan 36 786 533 0,03
89 Bosnia and Herzegovina 36 631 417 0,03
90 UE countries 35 816 550 0,03
91 Malawi 33 824 033 0,03
92 Mongolia 32 646 159 0,03
93 Mozambique 30 944 935 0,03
94 The United Republic of Tanzania 29 212 165 0,02
95 Abkhazia 28 922 016 0,02
96 Cyprus 25 370 627 0,02
97 Greenland 24 497 551 0,02
98 Zimbabwe 23 168 756 0,02
99 Malta 16 994 166 0,01
100 Nigeria 16 198 709 0,01
101 Ethiopia 14 451 531 0,01
102 Jordan 13 012 942 0,01
103 Uganda 11 482 455 0,01
104 Myanmar 10 729 692 0,01
105 Albania 9 137 008 0,01
106 Mauritania 8 855 175 0,01
107 Honduras 8 568 541 0,01
108 Guatemala 8 195 445 0,01
109 Qatar 7 874 394 0,01
110 The British Virgin islands 7 542 651 0,01
111 Zambia 7 126 588 0,01
112 The Dominican Republic 7 093 408 0,01
113 Lebanon 6 168 484 0,01
114 Afghanistan 5 816 643 0,00
115 Bahrein 5 266 883 0,00
116 Nicaragua 5 266 006 0,00
117 Bolivia 5 109 735 0,00
118 Madagascar 4 865 597 0,00
119 Lichtenstein 4 688 793 0,00
120 South Ossetia 4 481 798 0,00
121 Algeria 4 386 116 0,00
122 Mauritius 4 377 829 0,00
123 Papua-New Guinea 4 230 142 0,00
124 The Syrian Arab Republic 4 044 102 0,00
125 Senegal 3 565 658 0,00
126 Cameroon 3 451 149 0,00
127 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea 2 397 547 0,00
128 San-Marino 2 315 742 0,00
129 Oman 2 077 606 0,00
130 Venezuela 1 991 504 0,00
131 Ruanda 1 890 839 0,00
132 Montenegro 1 868 697 0,00
133 Guyana 1 570 901 0,00
134 Namibia 1 565 265 0,00
135 Macao 1 364 556 0,00
136 Seychelles 1 323 576 0,00
137 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 1 308 815 0,00
138 Burundi 1 184 256 0,00
139 El-Salvador 1 050 126 0,00
140 Monaco 1 018 280 0,00
141 Sudan 917 188 0,00
142 Panama 826 766 0,00
143 Laos 572 186 0,00
144 Congo 497 051 0,00
145 Swaziland 477 133 0,00
146 Nepal 433 675 0,00
147 Trinidad and Tobago 411 688 0,00
148 French Guiana 403 006 0,00
149 Bahamas 370 974 0,00
150 Palestinian territories 341 222 0,00
151 Liberia 328 515 0,00
152 Cayman islands 171 575 0,00
153 Curacao 157 017 0,00
154 Sierra-Leone 135 835 0,00
155 Yemen 127 819 0,00
156 Isle of Men 123 748 0,00
157 Bhutan 112 910 0,00
158 Iraq 107 547 0,00
159 The Marshall Islands 92 815 0,00
160 Andorra 81 492 0,00
161 Haiti 74 384 0,00
162 Bermuda 73 998 0,00
163 Anguilla 71 314 0,00
164 Kuwait 65 922 0,00
165 Barbados 65 454 0,00
166 Virgin Islands, USA 54 867 0,00
167 Surinam 51 892 0,00
168 Fiji 49 279 0,00
169 Niger 48 092 0,00
170 Burkina-Faso 39 385 0,00
171 Livia 35 106 0,00
172 Pitcairn 33 306 0,00
173 Somali 30 481 0,00
174 Mali 26 658 0,00
175 Reunion 26 232 0,00
176 Guinea 25 359 0,00
177 Gabon 24 912 0,00
178 Benin 24 464 0,00
179 Komori 24 060 0,00
180 Vanuatu 20 910 0,00
181 Solomon Islands 20 880 0,00
182 Equatorial Guinea 19 154 0,00
183 Central African Republic 18 096 0,00
184 Maldives 16 215 0,00
185 Gibraltar 11 142 0,00
186 Jersey 8 629 0,00
187 Eritrea 7 667 0,00
188 Angola 7 192 0,00
189 Aland Islands 5 210 0,00
190 The Democratic Republic of the Congo 4 947 0,00
191 Sao Tome and Principe 4 613 0,00
192 Grenada 3 529 0,00
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 3 388 0,00
194 The United States Minor Outlying Islands 3 241 0,00
195 South Sudan 3 129 0,00
196 Cabo-Verde 2 954 0,00
197 Belize 2 401 0,00
198 Lesotho 2 241 0,00
199 Niue 1 918 0,00
200 Vatican City State 1 776 0,00
201 Tokelau 1 677 0,00
202 Wallis and Futuna Islands 1 411 0,00
203 Christmas Island 1 262 0,00
204 Nauru 1 030 0,00
205 French Polynesia 851 0,00
206 Dominica 630 0,00
207 The British Indian Ocean Territory 574 0,00
208 Saint Helena 416 0,00
209 Gambia 376 0,00
210 The French Southern Territories 345 0,00
211 Svalbard and Jan Mayen 256 0,00
212 The Federated States of Micronesia 236 0,00
213 Montserrat 132 0,00
214 New Caledonia 41 0,00
215 South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands 36 0,00
216 Aruba 32 0,00
217 American Samoa 31 0,00
218 Timor-Leste 31 0,00
219 Tuvalu 31 0,00
220 Guadalupe 15 0,00
221 Guinea-Bissau 3 0,00

Speaking about the commodity structure of the foreign trade, the new trend can be noted: the share of the mineral fuel in the total export volume has significantly reduces (from 71,4% to 64,8%) in the period of January-August 2015. Despite this position continues playing the essential role, Russia begins to diversify its export. It is a kind of compulsory measure caused by falling HC-hydrocarbon prices. The total export volume of the mineral raw materials in the monetary terms amounted to 152,1 bln USD.

Other goods of the total export volume: ferrous metal (4,6% of the total export), fertilizers (2,6%), precious and semi-precious stones (2,4%), equipment and mechanical devices (2,4%), aluminum and goods thereof (2,2%), armament (2,1%), wood (1,8%), products of chemical industry (1,8%), copper and goods thereof (1,3%), cereals (1,3%), other foods and services (12,8%).

Commodity structure of export, January-August 2015г., % of total export in monetary terms

Picture 1. Commodity structure of export, January-August 2015г., % of total export in monetary terms

As for the import, the decrease in car industry by 3,2% can be explained the fall of cars demand among the population. The commodity structure in general remains the same and the reprocessing products are mainly purchased: mechanical equipment (18,6% of total import), electrical machinery and equipment (10,7%), cars (8,6%), pharmaceuticals (4,7%), plastics and products thereof (4,2%), optical equipment (2,6%), products of ferrous metals (2,6%) and others (see Picture 2).

Commodity structure of import, January-August 2015г., % of total import in monetary terms

Picture 2. Commodity structure of import, January-August 2015г., % of total import in monetary terms

Summing up the results, the Credinform experts forecast the decrease in the foreign trade turnover will continue the current year following the external reasons, such as the ruble devaluation and falling the HC-hydrocarbon prices. The low base and a kind of stabilization in the currency market can lead to the restoration of positions in 2016.

The further diversifying of the commodity structure of our export will be likely continued. The domestic manufacturer was given a competitive advantage and its products became significantly cheaper for the foreign buyers that can be a key to the external markets.