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Top-20 world economies: the GDP dynamics for the I-II quarter 2020
The pandemic COVID-19 and restrictions related to it have significantly hit the world largest economies. Current data on the GDP dynamics for the I-II quarter 2020 gives evidence to different level of drop and time required for the recovery to the lost positions.
China became the first country to face the strict lockdown. It lead to a drop in the GDP in the I quarter 2020 by - 6,8% to the same period of the previous year. The indicator became the worst since 1976. However, in the II quarter 2020 the economy resumed the growth. Thus, the negative effects of the restrictions in the Celestial Empire might be overcome by the end of 2020.
The USA is just entering the crisis: after the nominal growth in the I quarter 2020, the GDP in the II quarter has fell by -9,5% at once to the II quarter 2019 – the largest quarter drop ever in the history of monitoring since 1948.
Western Europe bears the biggest losses. It has come across the largest crisis after the end of the Second World War. The year on year GDP in Spain in the II quarter 2020 reduced by -22,1%, in United Kingdom by -21,7%, in France by -19%, in Italy by -17,3%, in Germany by -11,3%. It will take several years to get back to the pre-pandemic level. Another economic shutdown will drive back the EU development on several decades, in case of the second wave of the pandemic.
Russia has suffered in a smaller extent: in the I quarter 2020 the growth by 1,6%, was noted, in the II quarter 2020 - the decline by -8,5%.
It’s revealing that countries with the high industry share in the GDP have suffered less from the crisis than those where the services sector is dominant. Read about this in our previous publication.
| Rank | Country | GDP (PPP), USD trillion, 2019 | GDP dynamics, I quarter 2020 to I quarter 2019, % | GDP dynamics, II quarter 2020 to II quarter 2019, % |
| 1 | China | 27 307 | -6,8 | 3,2 |
| 2 | USA | 21 428 | 0,3 | -9,1 |
| 3 | India | 11 043 | 3,1 | no data |
| 4 | Japan | 5 712 | -1,7 | -9,9 |
| 5 | Germany | 4 444 | -2,3 | -11,3 |
| 6 | Russia | 4 390 | 1,6 | -8,5 |
| 7 | Indonesia | 3 736 | 3,0 | -5,3 |
| 8 | Brasilia | 3 481 | -0,3 | no data |
| 9 | United Kingdom | 3 162 | -1,7 | -21,7 |
| 10 | France | 3 062 | -5,0 | -18,9 |
| 11 | Mexico | 2 616 | -1,4 | -18,7 |
| 12 | Italy | 2 455 | -5,4 | -17,3 |
| 13 | Turkey | 2 362 | 4,5 | no data |
| 14 | Republic of Korea | 2 320 | 1,4 | -2,9 |
| 15 | Spain | 1 924 | -4,1 | -22,1 |
| 16 | Canada | 1 904 | -0,9 | -13,0 |
| 17 | Saudi Arabia | 1 901 | -1,0 | no data |
| 18 | Iran | 1 491 | no data | no data |
| 19 | Egypt | 1 391 | 5,0 | no data |
| 20 | Thailand | 1 378 | -1,8 | -12,2 |
Source: IMF, EUROSTAT,OECD, public sources, Credinform calculations
With the multidirectional regional GDP dynamics, the competition in the world will strengthen: the most affected countries will have to protect their companies and markets with the highest possible range of protectionist measures. On the other hand, the new possibilities are opened for the changes of the global production and sale.