The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation forecasted the partial rescinding of sanctions in 2016

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has prepared the optimistic script of economic development in 2015-2018. According to the forecast, the economic growth by 2,7-3,3% per year can be already expected in the next year; that is significantly higher than in the basic script, according to which the growth of GDP won’t be higher than 2,5% in the coming years.

The optimistic script was created on the basis of the following prerequisites: the oil prices in 2016-2018 will rise to 70-90 USD per barrel and the economic sanctions against Russia will be partially rescinded already in 2016. At the same time, the Head of the Ministry Aleksey Ulukaev noted, that the effect from additional measures of the government economic policy was also taken into account.

Besides, the favorable course of events assumes the growth of investment into equity, industrial production, actual earnings and labor efficiency from the next year. At the same time, the inflation will decrease from 11,6% in 2015 to 4,8% in 2018.

However it should be noted, that even the offered optimistic plan assumes, that Russia will fall behind the world economy by growth rates in the coming years. Thus in 2016-2018, depending on the scripts, offered by The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Russia will grow by 7,6-9,3%, at the worldwide average growth of 12,2%.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, another relevant department, considers that even the basic script, offered by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, is too optimistic. According to the Ministry’s forecast, the GDP dynamics over the next few years won't exceed 1,5%, while the projected oil price will be 60-70 USD per barrel by 2018.

Deputy director of the Development Center of National Research University Higher School of Economics Valery Mironov notes, that both scripts are far from reality and don't correspond to the accumulated experience of the developing economies, which passed through the currency crises within the last 10 years. Mironov says, that, as a rule, the next year after the crisis, the economy grows on average by 0,5%. Valery Mironov also emphasizes, that the investments have been starting to reduce two years prior to December devaluation, and he doesn't see the prerequisites for their growth in the coming years.

However some experts think that the improvement of forecasts is reasonable, as the results of the first quarter were better than expected.