The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has prepared the optimistic script of economic development in 2015-2018. According to the forecast, the economic growth by 2,7-3,3% per year can be already expected in the next year; that is significantly higher than in the basic script, according to which the growth of GDP won’t be higher than 2,5% in the coming years.
The optimistic script was created on the basis of the following prerequisites: the oil prices in 2016-2018 will rise to 70-90 USD per barrel and the economic sanctions against Russia will be partially rescinded already in 2016. At the same time, the Head of the Ministry Aleksey Ulukaev noted, that the effect from additional measures of the government economic policy was also taken into account.
Besides, the favorable course of events assumes the growth of investment into equity, industrial production, actual earnings and labor efficiency from the next year. At the same time, the inflation will decrease from 11,6% in 2015 to 4,8% in 2018.
However it should be noted, that even the offered optimistic plan assumes, that Russia will fall behind the world economy by growth rates in the coming years. Thus in 2016-2018, depending on the scripts, offered by The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Russia will grow by 7,6-9,3%, at the worldwide average growth of 12,2%.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, another relevant department, considers that even the basic script, offered by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, is too optimistic. According to the Ministry’s forecast, the GDP dynamics over the next few years won't exceed 1,5%, while the projected oil price will be 60-70 USD per barrel by 2018.
Deputy director of the Development Center of National Research University Higher School of Economics Valery Mironov notes, that both scripts are far from reality and don't correspond to the accumulated experience of the developing economies, which passed through the currency crises within the last 10 years. Mironov says, that, as a rule, the next year after the crisis, the economy grows on average by 0,5%. Valery Mironov also emphasizes, that the investments have been starting to reduce two years prior to December devaluation, and he doesn't see the prerequisites for their growth in the coming years.
However some experts think that the improvement of forecasts is reasonable, as the results of the first quarter were better than expected.
Capital outflow from Russia decreased by 32% at the end of the 1st quarter of the current year, in comparison with the same period of the previous year, and made 32.6 bln USD. In the 1st quarter of 2014 this indicator was 47.7 bln UDS.
As a reminder, at the end of 2014 the outflow of capital amounted to 154,1 bln USD. In the current year the Central Bank predicts a decline in this indicator up to 100-110 bln USD. Earlier the Minister of Economic Development of the RF Alexey Ulyukaev stated that net capital outflow at the end of 2015 will be significantly lower than in 2014 and won’t exceed 100 bln USD.
The results of the 1st quarter occurred to be worse, than Ulyukaev forecasted. So, the Minister predicted capital outflow in the amount of not more than 30 bln USD at the end of the first quarter.
As a reminder, in February of the current year the experts of Vnesheconombank (VEB) noted the acceleration of capital outflow up to 15 bln USD from 9 bln USD in January. That time the experts noticed that in conditions, where the population ceases to be an active player in the exchange market, this level is very high.
Along with that, according to the estimation of experts of VEB, Russia's GDP, stripped of seasonality and calendar factor, decreased in March 2015 to the previous month by 0,4%. The negative dynamics is observed in construction (-1,3%) and retail trade (-1,2%). By that, for the first time since the beginning of the year there is a positive trend observed in industrial production.
According to the estimation of experts of VEB, the quarterly dynamics of GDP became negative for the first time since 2009. So, in the 1st quarter of 2015 the GDP declined by 1,5%, in comparison with the same period of the previous year.
However, the experts note also positive points: stabilization in the exchange and money markets, strengthening of the ruble and slowdown in inflation. By that, it is noticed that these trends cannot be considered as stable yet and the economic revival should be expected not earlier, than in the 2nd half of the year.