Capital outflow from the RF at the end of the first quarter decreased by 32%

Capital outflow from Russia decreased by 32% at the end of the 1st quarter of the current year, in comparison with the same period of the previous year, and made 32.6 bln USD. In the 1st quarter of 2014 this indicator was 47.7 bln UDS.

As a reminder, at the end of 2014 the outflow of capital amounted to 154,1 bln USD. In the current year the Central Bank predicts a decline in this indicator up to 100-110 bln USD. Earlier the Minister of Economic Development of the RF Alexey Ulyukaev stated that net capital outflow at the end of 2015 will be significantly lower than in 2014 and won’t exceed 100 bln USD.

The results of the 1st quarter occurred to be worse, than Ulyukaev forecasted. So, the Minister predicted capital outflow in the amount of not more than 30 bln USD at the end of the first quarter.

As a reminder, in February of the current year the experts of Vnesheconombank (VEB) noted the acceleration of capital outflow up to 15 bln USD from 9 bln USD in January. That time the experts noticed that in conditions, where the population ceases to be an active player in the exchange market, this level is very high.

Along with that, according to the estimation of experts of VEB, Russia's GDP, stripped of seasonality and calendar factor, decreased in March 2015 to the previous month by 0,4%. The negative dynamics is observed in construction (-1,3%) and retail trade (-1,2%). By that, for the first time since the beginning of the year there is a positive trend observed in industrial production.

According to the estimation of experts of VEB, the quarterly dynamics of GDP became negative for the first time since 2009. So, in the 1st quarter of 2015 the GDP declined by 1,5%, in comparison with the same period of the previous year.

However, the experts note also positive points: stabilization in the exchange and money markets, strengthening of the ruble and slowdown in inflation. By that, it is noticed that these trends cannot be considered as stable yet and the economic revival should be expected not earlier, than in the 2nd half of the year.