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Prospects of economic recovery
Statistics of macroeconomic indicators in Russia for 6 months (October-December of 2015 and January-March of 2016) confirms opinion of experts that the peak of crisis passed in 2015 and economic growth is renewed (look at table 1). Positive tendencies in 2016 are noticed in agriculture, railway transportation, charged services to citizens, partly in retail trade. Indexes of consumer prices and manufacturers prices of industrial goods showed stable dynamics to decrease. Along with that, economic problems affected the indicators of employment – number of unemployed keeps growing.
| October 2015 г. | November 2015 г. | December 2015 г. | January 2016 г. | February 2016 г. | March 2016 г. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product, bln RUB | 53 361,3 | 80412,5 | 80 804,3 | |||
| Industrial production index , in % to the same month of the previous year | 96,4 | 96,5 | 95,5 | 97,3 | 101 | 99,5 |
| Agricultural products, bln RUB | 721,8 | 471,2 | 211,4 | 159 | 179,5 | 262,2 |
| Freight turnover, bln t-km | 459,1 | 443,2 | 458,6 | 428,3 | 405,6 | 432,2 |
| Which includes: railway transport | 198,6 | 196,9 | 202 | 182,9 | 185 | 197,8 |
| Retail turnover, bln RUB | 2 378,3 | 2 366,9 | 2 865 | 2 125,1 | 2 086,4 | 2 230,1 |
| Volume of charged services to citizens, bln RUB | 675,8 | 676,9 | 718,8 | 641,1 | 660,9 | 682 |
| Foreign trade turnover, bln USD | 43,1 | 44,4 | 42 | 45,9 | 27,4 | 33 |
| Which includes: export of goods | 26,4 | 27,2 | 25,5 | 28,4 | 17,6 | 20,2 |
| import of goods | 16,8 | 17,2 | 16,4 | 17,4 | 9,7 | 12,8 |
| Investment in equity, bln RUB | 1 547,6 | 1 446,8 | 2 460,3 | 14555,91) | ||
| Consumer price index, in % to the same month of the previous year | 115,6 | 115 | 112,9 | 109,8 | 108,1 | 107,3 |
| Industrial goods manufacturers price index, in % to the same month of the previous year | 114,2 | 113,9 | 110,7 | 107,5 | 103,5 | 100,8 |
| Real disposable financial, in % to the same month of the previous year | 94,4 | 94,6 | 99,3 | 93,7 | 93,1 | 98,2 |
| Average monthly salary of corporate employees: nominal, RUB | 33 240 | 33 857 | 42 684 | 32 122 | 32 990 | 35 570 |
| real, in % to the same month of the previous year | 89,1 | 91 | 90 | 93,9 | 97,4 | 101,6 |
| Total number of the unemployed, mln people | 4,3 | 4,4 | 4,4 | 4,4 | 4,4 | 4,6 |
| Number of legally registered unemployed, mln people | 0,9 | 0,9 | 1 | 1 | 1,1 | 1,1 |
Note: 1) data on January-February of 2015
Inspite of positive tendencies, there are grounds to believe that economic recovery will be delayed. It is caused by the following factors: low oil prices, weak national currency, high inflation and interest rate, deficit of investment, longtime realization of import substitution program, low purchasing ability and others. It should be noted that among mentioned factors there are system imbalances that includes dependency on oil prices, sensitiveness to speculative capital flows and inefficiency of basic economic policy tools.
The Russian rating agency ACRA, taking into account current economic situation, has released their first macroforecast that covers the period from 2016 to 2020. In 2016 the agency forecasts oil price 39 USD per barrel at average, decrease in GDP - 1,8%, investment decrease - to 5,2%, rouble flactuation at 68-71 RUB./$, inflation in the amount of 7,2%. According to ACRA, the industrial production growth will start not until 2017 and will not exceed 1% per year.