On the results of “One belt – one road” forum for the Russian economy

On May 14-15, 2017 Beijing (China) hosted “One belt – one road” international forum. 130 countries participated in the event, 30 of them were presented by the heads, including the President of the RF. Representatives of Asian countries, two representative from Latin America and Africa, and one from Micronesian state (Fiji) were also took part.

The Forum was dedicated to the development of Chinese initiative of “The New Silk Road” which was came up in 2013. The idea of the initiative is to create “Silk Road Economic Belt” (SREB) and “21-century Maritime Silk Road” (MSR). As a result, trade corridor of direct supplies on easy terms from the East to West has to be created. Currently the idea is renamed as “One belt – one road”.

Three roads are to be included in the Belt: north (China-Mongolia-Russia), central (China-Central Asia-West Asia) and south (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, China-Pakistan). It is planned to create high-speed railroad lines and relevant infrastructure. Except for the MSR, it is possible that “North Maritime Road” will also be used in prospect. Over 100 states joined the project since autumn of 2013 and began take part in its execution.

According to Chinese head, it has already been possible to conduct coordination with some EAEU projects through contacts with Russia, Kazakhstan’s “Light Way”, Mongolia’s “Way of development”, “Central corridor” (Turkey, ASEAN members), Vietnam's "Two Corridors and One Circle", English strategy “NorthernPowerhouse”, Polish “Amber road” and other projects.

Currently there is still the deliquescence of “One belt – one road” ideas. Due to inclusion of all other foreign-policy initiatives of China, its nature lacks definition and is in course of formation. That is why the Forum also pursued other aims: coordination of development strategies of states and specific formats of cooperation, joining the transport routes of the participating countries, developing mutual trade, creating financial stability systems in Asia and developing inter-human contacts.

The opinions on the evaluation of the Forum results were diverse. The President of Russia gave positive summing up and said that the concept of multilateral cooperation of members of the European Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Association of Southeast Asian Nations is promising. Cooperation of the countries will allow creating a system, regulating bilateral and international agreements, simplifying customs, control standards, intellectual property, sectoral forms of investment and cooperation, creating a fundamentally new transport configuration of the Eurasian continent.

In general, the Russian experts negatively assess the results. Although the RF President was the most honorable guest at the Forum, Russia has not received significant benefits from the Chinese initiative yet, since China has responded to none of the 40 transport projects proposed by the RF Government and Eurasian Economic Commission. There are fears that China can edge Russia out with its project and steal thunder in the post-Soviet space, in the countries of the Persian region and South-East Asia, despite of announce about equal partnership and mutually beneficial cooperation.

For Russia, the Forum was more interesting not from the economic, but from the political point of view, since “One belt - one way” formally represents the formation of an alternative geostrategic reality. Therefore, the Chinese Forum is a return of “political debts” and way to strengthen the position of the Eurasian Economic Union in the face of growing Chinese power. The Russian interest in the Asian region is also stems from the fact that if earlier foreign investors were interested in a growing national market, now to enter the markets of the Asia-Pacific region the cooperation with investors from other countries is necessary.