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29.01.2015
Article
The increase of the industrial production in December reached a year maximum
The industrial production in Russia increased by 3,9% in December 2014 comparing with the corresponding period of 2013. The growth was recognized after the drop of this indicator in November by 0,4% and the growth by 2,9% following the October results.
The growth of the industrial production in December in comparison with November amounted to 8,1%. By contrast in December 2013 this indicator amounted to 3,6%. At the same time the results of the last December became a total surprise for the experts. Thus, the analysts forecasted the growth following the results of December for less than 1,4%.
Dynamics of industrial production index
Some experts explain such impressive results of the industrial production in December by a calendar factor (in December 2014 there was one more working day in comparison with December 2013) and also by a low value of this indicator in December 2013. Besides, the growth of the industrial production that year in comparison with 2012 amounted to only 0,4% after 2,8% following the results of November.
In addition, the industrial dynamics in the sectors with a long investment cycle should be noted among factors that influenced the experts’ forecast precision. These sectors are particularly exposed to different fluctuations. Thus, following the results of the last December the production of gas turbines increased threefold comparing with the corresponding period of 2013. However, in the end of year the results appeared to be humbler and the growth amounted to 14,5%.
Embargo and devaluation of ruble influenced the December data as well. Therefore the active growth was recognized in the processing industry sectors where the import substitution takes place. For instance, production of meat (excluding poultry meat) increased by 20,1% (by 13,3% per year) and cheese by 32,7% (by 14,1% per year).
As a whole, the growth in the processing production in the last December amounted to 4% and to 2,1% per year. The production in the sector of mineral resources extraction increased by 3% in December and by 1,4% per year. In the sector of production and distribution of power energy, gas and water the growth by 3,4% was recognized in December and the drop by 0,1% per year.