According to recent reported data, the industrial construction increased on 2,1% in the February, 2014 in comparison with corresponding period of the previous year. Against the background of tense situation in Ukraine and West countries’ threats to impose economic sanctions on Russia this fact encouraged optimism into the expert community.
Fig. Increase of industrial construction, % (to corresponding period of the previous year)
The February indicator became the second best value of the industrial construction for the last 14 months. It reached its peak in November 2013 – 2,8%, whereas in February 2013 there was a decline on 3,1% in comparison with the rate in February 2012.
Last year many analysts came to a conclusion that the country has plunged into long-standing stagnation, the increase of industrial construction amounted to symbolic 0,4%. The figures of the January 2014 are not by much but however more than the figures of similar period of 2013. It is indicative that the main contribution into positive dynamic was made by processing industry in the February of the current year. This industry has showed the increase on 3,4%, the extraction of mineral resources – 0,7% and production and distribution of electric power, gas and water has decreased on 0,3%.
Taking into consideration the deep integration of Russia into the world economy, on the main markets of which the rally of investment activity and the consumer’s demand are being noted recently, there are reasons to believe that the observing processes of recovery of the domestic industry will have system nature. And the external situation with joining of the Crimea and Sevastopol won’t have significant impact on mutual trade and collaboration with main foreign trade partner – the European Union. Several forecasts have already been made concerning the fact that the infrastructural investments into new territories will provide a spark to the GDP, and political sanctions of the West countries will summon the part of the capital back to the country.
The Ministry of Finance of the RF has prepared amendments focused on the strengthening of requirements to banks, in which the companies with state participation are allowed to place their funds. As of today it is enough, if a bank has the credit rating not below BB- from the international rating agencies Fitch, Standard & Pooor`s and Moody`s. The assessments of Russian rating agencies were also considered, such as «NRA» (minimum rating AAA), «AKM» and «Ekspert RA» (minimum rating A++) and «Rusreiting» (minimum rating A-).
The experts note, that, although the rating of a bank directly testifies to its financial strength, last recalls of banking licenses is evidence that even a bank formally meeting accepted criteria can occur at risk. So that, the loss of 1,5 bln RUB by the Fund of assistance to reforming of housing and communal services, invested in Investbank, which was revoked a license, has given an impulse to the strengthening of selection criteria.
According to new rules, to the already existing criterion it is added the necessity of being in the list of systemically important banks, establishing by the Central Bank of the RF. Within assessment, based on the first criterion (agencies’ rating), 27 credit institutions have an access to the auction. However, the introduction of a new criterion can significantly shorten their number, but the list of socially important banks is not released to the public.
Information agency Credinform is preparing to issue own bank financial strength index, which will help the users estimate how reliable is a credit institution.